Oh, why did I decide to do this?

1. Presidential election: Nearly a quarter of Idaho’s population are members of the Mormon Church.  Even though, there has been some backslide with elected Mormon officials deciding to support Donald Trump, Trump has been polling particularly poorly with members of the Mormon faith.  His abrasive personality, his personal life, and his willingness for religious persecution has many Mormons rethinking their traditionally Conservative views.  Enter Evan McMullin, a Mormon from Utah and a graduate from Brigham Young University.  McMullin has been polling well in Utah being able to place a strong third all the way to first depending on the poll.  The attractiveness of McMullin depends on people holding firm to their convictions and possibly more adversarial stories coming out about Trump’s personal life.  I believe there is more coming.  Because of the potential appeal of McMullin, it’ not out of the question that his second strongest showing will be in this state. I’m very interested in watching how McMullin performs in this state and how far Trump can fall in another state that should be an easy win for him.
2. Idaho State Senate District 5: In Idaho,unlike many other states, state Senators serve two year terms and are not subject to term limits.  Because of this, we have better data of how State Senators will perform in each election.  In this district, the Democratic incumbent Dan Schmidt is running for re-election.  He was re-elected in 2012 with 51% of the vote.  He won re-election by just over 400 votes. In 2014, he was elected again by a slim margin.  This time by just less than 700 votes.  In Idaho and heavily Conservative states, I’m interested in seeing if Presidential election years are more Conservative because people are excited to cast their votes for President.  Especially in Idaho, what I’m interested in, is if Mitt Romney had unusually high appeal in the state, while as we mentioned Trump will likely do a lot worse.  McMullin gives Republicans an opportunity to not regret their vote for PResident and show up for downballot races.
3. Idaho State Senate District 15: Well so much for my Romney theory…this district elected Republican Fred Martin by just under 800 votes in 2012.  In 2014, Martin was re-elected by just under 2,000 votes. If Republicans do significantly worse in this district because of Trump’s low appeal, this is a seat that could potentially flip (I wouldn’t count on it).  But I think this is also oa good test for Evan McMullin.
4. Idaho State Senate District 29: Democrat Roy Lacey was elected in this district by just over 1,300 votes in 2012. In 2014, Republicans were able to make up about 100 votes into Lacey’s margin.  This could be a safe district for Democrats but if it’s possible that Idaho Republicans is going to turn out for the President, this could be one that flips the district.
5. HJR5: There’s a slight fight over this Constitutional Amendment between the Idaho Governor and the Idaho Secretary of State with the Idaho Attorney General.  All three of these officials are Republicans. Wasden, from my understanding, is not one of the more “conservative”:Republicans that have sprung in the last 6 years.  Again, this is based on what could be a flawed understanding, is what could be considered an “establishment” Republican.  He defeated a challenger in 2014 and referenced the 2014 elections again, when asked in 2016 if he would endorse Trump:

“In many ways, this election cycle is similar to the one we had here in Idaho two years ago, when I suggested there was a fight taking place for the heart and soul of the Idaho Republican Party. This time, however, the fight is on a grander scale, one not just for the heart and soul of the national Republican Party but for the soul of the nation as a whole.”

Otter has been a supporter of Trump and will not back away from this statement.  In some ways, this might be a battle for Idaho Republican supremacy going forward.

Even though a great new hero of the left who is totally standing up to the corruption of the DNC out of the goodness of her heart and not at all out of political expedience is running for re-election, there’s not a whole lot happening in Hawai’i that’s really interesting electorally speaking.  But I decided to do this goal. So here we are.

1. Amendment 1: Seriously, there’s not a lot of interesting elections happening in the state.  This Amendment would change the Constitution to require the value for civil jury trials in common law to be increased from $5,000 to $10,000.  I read this ballot measure like 10 times.  The only organized opposition to the Amendment is State Farm.  I’m assuming other insurance companies are also not a fan of the law.  But I really want to see what happens to it.  I don’t know. I have a weird obsession with things.
2. U.S. House of Representatives, Hawai’i’s 2nd Congressional District: Oh look, it’s some portion of the left’s new hero, Tulsi Gabbard.  She’s running for re-election.  I am rooting for her to crush her opponent.  Mainly because her opponent Angela Aulani Kaaihue has made so many racist remarks and weird questionable remarks that the Republican and Democratic Party have disowned her.  While campaigning, she has said that she is healthy and cancer free while also running for Mark Takai’s seat who died of cancer. I don’t know. But she’s registered as running as a Democrat, too, so both sides.
3. Hawaii House of Representatives, District 31: This is interesting to watch because the Democratic candidate Aaron Ling Johanson has switched his political party from Republican to Democrat.  Johanson won the 2012 election with 65.2% of the vote as a Republican and 71.8% of the vote in 2014 as a Republican.  Can Johanson win as a Democrat in the district?  I don’t see why not.
4. Hawaii House of Representatives, District 43: This is one of the few districts in Hawaii represented by a Republican.  So, of course, it’s going to be a tough election for the Republican Andria Tuploa.  Tupoloa was elected to the House in 2014 with 2,828 votes, 738 more than the Democratic incumbent. Staceylnn K.M. Eli defeated Karen Leinani Awana in the Democratic primary.  Eli might have a shot at retaking the seat.
5. Hawaii House of Representatives District 47: Ahh another republican running for re-election.  Feki Pouha is running for re-election.  Pouha received 2,996 votes in 2014 defeating Democratic Kent Fonoimoana by 180 votes.  2014 was significantly more of a Republican year than 2012 or 2016 should be.  But Pouha did better in 2012 than 2014.  So I’m not sure how Sean Quinlan would do in 2016 to defeat Pouha but I’m interested in watching.

This is potentially a swing state for Hillary Clinton.  But there are some other things worth watching, as well.  I know that This American Life would want me to talk about Amendment 3. But they did a better job than I ever could to cover the issue.

1. Presidential election: As I mentioned that this is a potential swing state for Hillary Clinton.  The reason being is that demographics in the state are slowly changing in favor of Democrats.  Trump has a small lead in the state according to the polls I looked at with HuffPost Pollster.  So while, it’s possible that Clinton wins the state, it would take another scandal for Trump to fall below his projections to swing it to Clinton.  I’m not dismissing it but a closer than expected race in Georgia only fuels the fire of the accelerant that is Trump’s campaign to the impending Democratic demographic dominance.
2. Georgia State Senate, District 43: this State Senate District was held by Democrat Ronald Ramsey.  He was unopposed in both 2012 and 2014.  Ramsey resigned from his seat in 2015 to become a judge in the DeKalb County traffic court.  The special election had to go to a runoff election and Republican Janice Frey Van Ness was able to win the election by 84 votes.  There were 7,646 total votes cast in the runoff election.  To put this in perspective, when Ramsey ran unopposed in 2012, he received 59,411 votes. With more votes, it seems like it might be able to swing back to the Democrats.  Tonya Anderson who lost the runoff election is running for a rematch against Frey Van Ness on November 8th.
3. Georgia House of Representatives, District 138: Democrats can’t take back the House of Representatives unless something really strange happens. But we can still look at a few of the elections that are happening the state House of Representatives.  Republican Mike Cheokas won re-election to the Georgia House of Representatives with 8,101 votes this was 108 votes more than the Democratic challenger Kevin Brown.  In 2014, in a rematch, Cheokas was able to win by 448 votes.  Luckily for those in District 138,  Brown is not running for a third straight election against Cheokas.  The Democratic challenger is Bill McGowan.  If we think that Clinton has a shot to win the state, it would take shifting some of the districts in the state.  Why not a district that was only separated by 108 votes in 2012?
4. Georgia House of Representatives, District 105: This is another House district that could flip with a potential shift in the state from Republican to Democratic or with depressed Republican turnout.  Republican Joyce Chandler was elected to the House with 10,561 votes, 554 more votes than her Democratic challenger, Renita Hamilton.  As we’ve seen with almost every state legislature election, there was a rematch in 2014.  Hamilton lost again to Chandler, this time by less than 800 votes.  This time around, the Democratic challenger is Donna McLeod.  If the state continues its leftward drift, about 600 votes should be doable…right?
5. Georgia House of Representatives, District 80: This is the opposite of a number of districts I want to watch.  Mike Jacobs was re-elected without opposition in 2012.  He received 16,041 votes.  He ran without opposition in 2014, as well.  He was appointed to the DeKalb county State Court in May of 2015.  The special election to replace him advanced to a runoff where Democrat Taylor Bennett was elected with 2,715 votes over Republican J. Max Davis (2,263) votes.  Republican Megan Hanson is trying to unseat Bennett on November 8th.  It will most likely flip.  But it will be fun to watch s the votes come in if Bennett can hold onto a seat that would normally be more conservative.

It looks like Florida is going to potentially replace Ohio as the swing state that everyone cares about.  But thanks to Donald Trump accelerating the impending demographic apocalypse for the Republican Party (please note, I’m not a demographic absolutist that it’s going to swing everything for the Democratic Party).

1. Presidential election: The Presidential election in Florida will become the ultimate swing state.  The electoral vote grab of 29 votes is extremely important for both the Democratic and the Republican Party.  Even though Florida is becoming less white and younger, it still remains a swing state as a number of transplants are moderates and trending conservatives.  The story to watch in Florida that could influence the election is the number of Puerto Rican migrants who have moved to Florida.  They could end up tipping the state and the election toward Clinton. According to Steve Schale who worked for Barack Obama, 2.5 million Floridians have already voted and the Republican Party probably has about a 10,000 vote lead.  We’ll know more after Halloween weekend (the weekend before Halloween)
2. US Senate election: This election is getting a lot more press than it probably should because of the weird communication that the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has largely decided to give up on the race (multiple times).  Marco Rubio is running for re-election against the Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy.  Rubio was elected in 2010 (an actual wave election) with less than 50% of the vote because Charlie Crist switched parties and split the Democratic vote. Rubio jumped into the race late with a politically craven way of getting back into the election.  I say this as someone who likes Rubio (for the most part).  He has often been described as the most ambitious person political staffers have ever met. At any rate, the Florida Democratic Party and their bench is such a sad joke.  The two candidates who competed in the Florida Democratic primary were Patrick Murphy who basically got elected because he ran against an insane loon in Allen West and Alan Grayson, who by most accounts is not a good human.  There are lots of scandals coming out about Murphy, who I should note, was recruited personally by Joe Biden and the DSCC.  But he has not managed to put Rubio away.  In fact, he trails by quite a bit.  I don’t think Murphy is going to be able to win Florida barring a giant upset or Rubio running closer to Trump’s numbers than anything else.
3. U.S. House of Representatives, Florida’s 13th Congressional District: Oh look, Charlie Crist found another office that he could run for.  I’m telling you the Florida Democratic Party and their bench is just terrible. In the few polls that have been made public, he has been polling pretty close to winning or winning against David Jolly, the Republican incumbent. This district has been moving more Democratic over the election cycle but incumbency has its own advantages.  Also, Crist isn’t the most popular guy in Florida.  As much as I don’t want to pay attention to Crist’s political career, I can’t take my eyes off of it.
4. U.S. House of Representatives, Florida’s 26th Congressional District: Have I mentioned how terrible the Democratic Party’s bench is in Florida?  Garcia was potentially involved in a scandal back in 2014 and lost his bid for re-election because of it. And of course, it’s going to be brought up and just hammered home prior to election day.  Of course, in that same article, there are Washington insiders who think that Trump at the top of the ticket would flip the swing district away from fairly moderate Carlos Curbelo.  Like most scandal-ridden candidates, I’m excited to watch what happens.
5. Florida Amendment 2: Florida is having another try at legalizing medical marijuana.  In 2014, 57.65% of voters voted in favor of medical marijuana but 60% is needed to be able to pass a Constitutional Amendment in Florida.  Have they done enough work to get it passed in 2016?  I believe a more Democratic electorate will give it a better shot of passing.

This is not going to be interesting for anyone, probably.  Remember that time Donald Trump spent time in Connecticut because he thought he could flip it? That was fun.

1. Connecticut State Senate District 7:  The incumbent Republican John Kissel won re-election in 2012 by less than 500 votes.  In 2014, a much more Conservative year, in general, gave Kissel 69.5% of the vote.  He received essentially the same amount of votes in 2014 (22,160) as he did in 2012 (22,182).  The big difference is that the Democratic vote share declined from 21,674 votes to 9,704 votes.  So what happened in 2014?  Should we just assume that the normal turnout for the district is going to be 2014? Or 2012?  That’s what I’m interested in watching.
2. Connecticut State Senate District 13: Democratic incumbent Dante Barolomeo was elected in a Presidential election year (2012) when he won by less than 300 votes over the Republican incumbent Len Suzio.  In a rematch in 2014, he won by a little more than 300 votes.  Why did Bartolomeo improve in a more conservative year overall for the electorate?  I’m sure that people with better data analysis than me could figure this out and get paid quite a bit to come up with their theories. but my guess is that Barolomeo added a “T” to his name, or so it appears on Ballotpedia.  Suzio and Bartolomeo are headed for a third straight election on November 8th.  How boring.
3. Connecticut State Senate District 24: HAHA so there’s another Michael McLachlan in Colorado.  Ballotpedia mixed them up on their site.  ANYWAY, the Connecticut McLachlan won re-election to the State Senate in 2012 receiving 51.7% of the vote winning the election by 1,200 votes.  He ran for re-election in 2014 where he was not opposed by a Democrat.  He received 86% of the vote in 2014.  He is challenged by Democrat Kenneth Gucker for November 8th.  If the turnout ends up being closer to 2012 than 2014 plus a general lean for the electorate to being more Democratic, this could be an upset for McLachlan.  Even though, I was initially interested in the election based on faulty information, I think that it will still be an interesting election to watch.
4. Connecticut State House of Representatives District 38: Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Ritter won re-election to the State House of Representatives in this district with 61% of the vote by over 2,400 votes.  In 2014, Ritter did not run for re-election.  The Democratic nominee was Marc Balestracci.  Balestracci received 48.2% of the vote and 4,199 votes.  221 votes were given to Green Party candidate Billy Gene Collins.  The Republican nominee Kathleen M. McCarty received 4,289 votes.  If there were not a green party challenger or Balestracci was able to win over just half of the Green Party’s candidate’s votes, he would have won the election. Undeterred from being a spoiler, the Green Party nominated Lauren Shaw for 2016.  The Democratic Party nominated Sharon Palmer to run against the incumbent Kathleen McCarty.  Without a third party spoiler, I would think that Palmer could win.  Based on Presidential turnout, it seems more likely to me that Palmer will win.
5. Connecticut State House of Representatives District 41: In 2012, there were 9,339 votes cast in the district. 4,951 votes were cast for the Democratic incumbent Elissa Wright.  4,388 were cast for the Republican candidate Harry Watson.  In 2014, there was 7,201 votes cast in the district.  Democrat Elissa Wright received 3,581 votes.  The Republican candidate Aundre Bumgardner received 39 more votes, getting a total of 3620 votes.  The turnout significantly decreased and Wright barely lost. Bumgardner is running for re-election against a new challenger Joe de la Cruz.  De la Cruz should be able to win since 2014 was so close but maybe the incumbent advantage will be too much to overcome.

Colorado is a state that has flipped to the Democratic Party over the last few election cycles.  The Clinton campaign did not spend very much money here throughout the cycle and looks unlikely to go to Trump on November 8th.

There are actually more than 5 elections to watch in Colorado that will be interesting.  The Colorado State Senate may flip with the election.

1. Proposition 106: This is one of my hobby horses, I’ll be honest. Mainly because I am selfish.  I want states to allow me to decide to end my life if I have a terminal diagnosis so that I can choose when I die instead of waiting for the terrible parts of my life to come up.  The Proposition would allow assisted death legal among patients with a terminal prognosis within six months. The fear of assisted suicide is that people will flood the state to be able to die legally, which is why Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts opposes the measure.  Or that insurers will drop certain coverages and treatments to increase the life of a patient who is terminal.  I am interested in how this measure does because like I said, I’m selfish, and want to see how it turns out so it can spread to other states, hopefully.
2. U.S. House of Representatives Colorado’s 6th Congressional District: This will likely be the most competitive election in Colorado’s Congressional delegation.  This district is fairly moderate.  In 2012, the district voted 51.6% for Obama with 46.5% with Romney.  Coffman has shown some spine and is running away from Trump in his Congressional election against Democratic State Senator Morgan Carroll.  Coffman won re-election in the district in 2012 with 47.8% of the vote defeating the Democratic candidate by 7,000 votes.  He won another election in 2014 with 51.9% of the vote.  What Carroll and Democrats are hoping for is that Trump is unacceptable to moderate Republicans in Colorado or Coloradans, in general.
3. Colorado State Senate District 19: Currently, Republicans hold a one seat advantage in the State Senate, currently.  One of the pick up opportunities for Democrats in the Senate would be this seat. Incumbent Democrat Rachel Zensinger lost her re-election bid in 2014 by less than 700 votes. She has decided for a rematch against Republican Laura Woods in 2016.  If Republican turnout is lower in the state than the Senate could essentially be tied with a loss in this district.
4. Colorado State Senate District 35: Another hypothetical pickup for Colorado Democrats would be this district.  Republican Larry Crowder won election in 2012 with 49.2% of the vote and 1,500 vote advantage over the Democratic nominee and 2,461 votes for the Libertarian candidate.  Democrat challenger Jim Casias is trying to unseat Crowder in 2016.  The Libertarian candidate in 2012 is running again in 2016.  The hope for Democrats is a combination of reduced turnout for Republicans and enough people voting for a Libertarian candidate this low because of distrust of the Republican Party.  An increase in support of Gary Johnson would likely help in this goal.
5. Colorado House of Representatives District 3: There are two reasons that I’m interested in watching this election.  The first reason is that the Democratic nominee’s name is Jeff Bridges.  The second reason is that this has been a pretty competitive district in 2012 and 2014.  So much so that both the Democratic and Republican State Legislature campaigns are targeting this race.  In 2012 which should have been a strong year for a Democrat in Colorado showed the Democratic incumbent get 50.8% of the vote with a 2,500 vote advantage over Republican Brian Watson.  Kagan won re-election in 2014 with 50.7% of the vote over Republican challenger Candice Benge which equated to a 450 vote advantage.  Kagan is term-limited and can’t run for re-election, again.  Enter Jeff Bridges (not the dude).  This is going to be a fairly close race but we can look at the advantages that an incumbent has over challengers.

Because California is a ridiculous state, we had to focus on 5 of the ballot measures that were on the ballot there before we moved on to the rest of the elections that we’re interested in watching. And since California is so populous, we have double the amount of elections that we are watching.

1. California US Senate election: This is an interesting experiment.  One of the legacies of the Governator was his insistence on “jungle primaries.”  The jungle primaries moved the primary elections in California to put everyone on the ballot during the primary and the top two vote getters regardless of party would move onto the general election for statewide elections, including federal elections for Congress.  What you can have, since California is more or less a one party state is that you can have two Democrats move onto the general election.  Or if there are enough candidates, you can split the vote enough ways to move a typical liberal district to have two Republicans advance to the general election.  A lot of people believe that the idea of the jungle primaries favors the more conservative candidates.  Loretta Sanchez may be trying to take advantage of it.  She was able to finish 2nd in the primary to current California Attorney General Kamala Harris for the US Senate.  Harris has the support of the traditional Democratic Party.  Sanchez, despite also being a Democrat, is not getting the traditional support from either party.  Sanchez is a fill in for the Republican candidate in this instance.  I’m not sure if I really buy that but that’s what’s out there.  Harris and Sanchez are both Democrats which is the first time that two Democrats moved to the general election for such a high office in California.  The election strategy for Sanchez is to be able to pick enough voters from the Democratic Party + the Republican Party in California to be able to win.  What is being threatened by the California Republican Party is that they’re not going to vote for Senate.  That could be possible.  Republicans might simply not vote for Senate.  With Trump at the top of the ballot and no Republican running for Senate, it’s possible that Republican turnout in California will be even lower.  This is a historic election as there will be either a black woman elected to Senate or a Latina woman.  Either way, should be interesting to watch.
2. U.S. House of Representatives, California’s 10th District: Let’s operate under the assumption that Republican turnout will be depressed because Trump and no Senate candidate.  We may see some Congressional Districts shift from Republicans to Democrats (yes, there are Republican members of Congress in California).  Jeff Denham is not that far right wing.  He is left leaning for the Republican caucus in the U.S. House but he is running in a district that is not that conservative.  Denham has supported broad immigration reform, as well as introduced legislation to offer a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who served in the military.  But his district voted for Obama in the past two elections, although it was very close about a 3 point win for Obama.  It’s possible that it swings to the left to support Hillary Clinton.  Denham has to continue to run significantly ahead of the Republican candidate for President which he did in 2012 by about 3 points.  That may not be enough in this election.  I’m interested in watching how this district turns out.  He is running in a rematch against Michael Eggman who he crushed in 2014 56-44.
3. U.S. House of Representatives, California’s 25th District: It’s another moderate district in California.  In 2012, this district voted for Romney 49.8-47.8 Obama.  It had former member of Congress Buck McKeon who wasn’t exactly a Republican extremist.  In 2014, this district voted for two Republican challengers in the primary election advancing both to the general election.  Steve Knight advanced to the general election in which he won over fellow Republican Tony Strickland 53-47.  This time he is being challenged by Bryan Caforio.  The Los Angeles Times ntoed that Knight is the most vulnerable Republican in Los Angeles.  There has been a flood of dark money flooding into the district.  This is one worth watching to determine if turnout is lower than usual in 2016.
4. U.S. House of Representatives, California’s 49th District: This is the district that I didn’t think was going to be in play at the beginning of the cycle.  This largely is going to come down to how bad Trump does in the district and how many college educated white voters show up to vote.  This district is represented by Darrell Issa.  You may think that Issa is relatively safe, which I thought at the beginning of the cycle.  This district voted Romney 52-46 in 2012 so it’s not terribly conservative.  Issa has also been sending out mailers of how he has worked with Obama in the past.  And I just can’t.  That’s insane to think about.  I’m interested to watch how Issa had to debase himself to potential primary voters.  Perhaps, this is an argument in favor of jungle primaries that it potentially decreases extremism on both sides of the political parties.  I’ve long thought that Issa is going to run for Senate or Governor in a lower turnout election.  But he needs to get re-elected to be able to do that.  He got nearly 60% of the vote in each of the last two elections.  But depressed Republican turnout and the moderate nature of the district could lead to an upset of Issa on November 8.
5. California State Senate District 5: The Democratic Party in California holds a super majority in the state legislature (Senate and Assembly).  One of the districts that was very close in 2012 was District 5.  Democrat Cathleen Galgiani defeated Republican Bill Berryhill by about 3,000 votes.  In a year where Republican turnout was stronger either because of the top of the ticket or other elections, this would be a district that could potentially flip.  But it seems likely based under the assumption that we’re operating under, I believe Galgiani will double her margin.  If Republican turnout is somehow not depressed, this would be the State Senate seat that could flip and would be indicative of such a turnout.
6. California State Assembly District 14: In what is becoming a race to have a referendum on education reform in California and education reform within the Democratic Party.  Mae Toralkson, wife of California Education Superintendent Tom Toralkson is running against Tim Grayson.  Tom Toralkson was endorsed in 2014 by the California Teacher’s Association (CTA).  Toralkson ran against Marshall Tuck who was championed by charter schools and the charter school business groups.  This same dynamic is coming into play within this district.  Mae Toralkson has been endorsed by the CTA and Grayson is aligning himself with charter schools and the education reform movement. He has also said that he would go up against teacher’s unions that “work against the interests of dynamic young teachers and students in low-income areas.”  The Democratic Party is having an intraparty war on education reform.  This is one district that will be a battle bulletpoint going forward.
7. California State Assembly District 16: In 2012, this District went to the Democratic candidate Joan Buchanan.  She won 59% of the vote.  She chose not to seek re-election in 2014.  In 2014, Republican Catharine Baker and Democrat Tim Sbranti faced off in the general election.  Baker was able to get elected by less than 4,000 votes.  There were 74,000 less votes in this district from 2012 to 2014.  It seems likely to me that the vote for Baker was mainly because of depressed voter turnout rather than the district actually becoming more Conservative.  I’ve already said what assumptions I’m working under so I expect Republican turnout to diminish.  That is bad news for Baker.  This is one of the districts I’ve flagged to watch for my turnout prediction.
8. California State Assembly District 39: In the 2014 election, Raul Bocanegra, who was the incumbent at the time, lost to fellow Democrat Patty Lopez by less than 500 votes.  Lopez has more or less been detached from the Democratic Party during her tenure in Sacramento. She does not have the support of the Party and is not making up for it with fundraising.  Bocanegra will likely be re-elected but it is the strength of the Democratic Party that is being tested in this election, which makes it well worth watching.
9. California State Assembly District 65: In 2012, Sharon Quirk-Silva upset incumbent Republican Chris Norby by less than 5,000 votes.  Norby was elected in a special election in 2010  and was re-elected in November of that same year.  In 2014, Quirk-Silva lost by less than 7,000 votes in 2014 to Republican Young Kim.  Quirk-Silva has decided for a rematch with Young Kim in 2016.  If the election is basically just being flipped back and forth based on turnout, this would be an argument in Quirk-Silva’s favor for being able to win the election.  I think it’s worth watching because again, this is more data in the Republican turnout narrative.
10. California State Assembly District 66: This is another district that seems to be flip based on turnout and elections that are better for one party or the other.  Democratic candidate Al Muratsuchi won election in 2014 with 102,136 votes and won by 18,000 votes over Republican Craig Huey.  in 2014, with 108,096 votes cast in the district, Muratsuchi lost by 700 votes to the Republican challenger Hadley.  The total votes lost from 2012 to 2014 was nearly 80,000 votes.  If the turnout is anywhere close to 2012, it seems like Muratsuchi is going to be headed back to Sacramento.

The former Arkansas First Lady and somewhat of a home state is running for President but I don’t think it’s going to make much of a difference.  Arkansas has taken a decidedly conservative in recent years and even people like Mark Pryor got voted out of office.

1. Issue 6/Issue 7: There are two ballot measures regarding medical marijuana in Arkansas, Issue 6 and Issue 7.  If they both pass, the one that has the most votes will be the one that is enacted.  Which, if you think about it, is kind of messed up. When it’s all said and done, when we look back at the elections of 2016, there will be a definite theme of marijuana in the same way that 2004 has often been talked about in behind the same sex marriage amendments that were passed during the same time. Issue 6 and Issue 7 are slightly different.  Issue 7 allows medical marijuana patients to grow marijuana in their homes, a statute that Issue 6 does not touch.  Issue 7 also expands the list of qualifying conditions and provides additional oversight.  The tax revenue for Issue 6 would be given to the general fund or for education whereas Issue 7 would use the tax revenue to provide medical marijuana to low income patients in need. Issue 7 also puts the Department of Health in charge of regulation as opposed to a new agency.  The little polling I have seen shows that Issue 6 is pretty split for Arkansas even though proponents of the measure suggest that 80% of Arkansasites support medical marijuana for patients in need.  Issue 7 does worse in polling seeming to suggest that Issue 6 has the better chance of passing.  I’m not confident that either pass but Issue 6 certainly seems more likely.  If we do see medical marijuana pass in Arkansas, a traditionally conservative state, it may open the floodgates for other states to pass similar statutes and may be a gateway for other states to pass similar measures.
2. Arkansas State Senate District 27: Republicans hold the State Senate, State House of Representatives, and the Governor’s office.  There’s not very many competitive elections in the State Senate, in fact, there are only three State Senate districts where a member of each party is running against each other. All other districts, there is only one major party candidate running. Democrat Bobby Pierce is running for re-election.  Pierce won election in 2012 by 299 votes.  Romney won the state as a whole with 60.57% of the vote.  It seems unlikely to me that Trump will do much better than Romney (if he matches that total, at all).  But it’s even more likely to me that Pierce will be in for a close election against Republican Trent Garner. It can certainly be closer than 300 votes that he won by in 2012 but what I’ll be watching for is how Pierce does in this district.
3. Arkansas State House of Representatives District 73: Supposedly, Arkansas Democrats are trying to focus on winning districts in the House of Representatives. If they’re looking to take back a seat, this is probably one of the ones that they’re targeting.  The Democratic incumbent John Wayne Catlett lost re-election in 2014 by less than 200 votes.  He had won re-election in 2012 by just over 300 votes in 2012.  There was a net loss of about 900 voters from 2012 to 2014 in terms of turnout.  Since it was recently taken by Republicans in 2014 by such a small margin, it could be one just as easily taken back by Democrats with normal Presidential election level turnout.  The other variable is the strength of the Democratic candidate Lesa Wolfe Crowell.   I’ll be looking to see if Democrats can potentially take back a seat in the House of Representatives.
4. Arkansas State House of Representatives District 4: This is more of a longshot to take back by the Democrats.  Fonda Hawthorne won election in this district in 2012 with 4870 votes, less than 800 more than her Republican opponent.  As we saw with elections around the country and Arkansas, in particular, Republicans were able to turn out for the 2014 elections. Hawthorne received 2962 votes in 2014.  She lost her re-election bid to her Republican opponent DeAnn Vaught who received 4317 votes in 2014.  Vaught and Hawthorne are locked into an interesting rematch for November 8.  The only variable for the election is the turnout and how much of a coattail Clinton will have even in a Republican state.
5. Arkansas State House of Representatives District 58: We’ll end on one more district that the Democratic Party might be able to take back in two weeks.  This seat changed hands in 2012 moving from Republican Jon Hubbard to Democrat Harold Copenhaver by a little less than 700 votes.  It switched to Republican Brandt Smith in 2014 by less than 500 votes.  It would make sense that the district switches hands again from Smith to Democratic challenger Nate Looney.  Again, what we’re trying to follow is how large a coattail Clinton can have even in  a state, she seems likely to lose by 15+.  By just increasing turnout, it seems that she may have a significant effect on these types of downballot races.

Arizona is going to be a surprisingly fun state to watch a fortnight from now.  Unlike some of the states where I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel trying to find things I’m interested in watching, there’s easily 5 things that I’m interested in watching in Arizona on November 8th.

1. Presidential election: In the last 60 years, the only Presidential election in which Arizona voted for the Democratic nominee was 1996.  Clinton’s second term, he was able to barely beat out Bob Dole in 1996 in Arizona (a Presidential election where Dole had pretty much given up before the end).  Is it possible that Hillary Clinton can win Arizona for only the second time in the last 60 years?  It’s certainly possible. Trump is not doing that well in Arizona thanks to the demographic make up of the state and Clinton doing historically well with Latino voters.  What’s more is that Hillary’s “get out the vote” efforts will start her up by quite a few points prior to election day thanks to early voting and absentee votes.  This is one of the states that I think is a true tossup for election day.  The Real Clear Politics Polling Average has Clinton up 1.5 right now. Gary Johnson might spoil some votes (he received 1.4% of the vote in Arizona in 2012).  Also, there are 418,959 Mormons in Arizona.  Evan McMullin who is more or less running as a spoiler for Donald Trump and a Mormom alternative for Mormons (who are really not wanting to vote for Trump) has write-in ballot access in Arizona.  The demographics and the potential spoilers should be enough to tip the election close enough where Clinton’s GOTV efforts should be able to win the state.
2. Proposition 205: The ballot measure that a lot of people are going to be following throughout November 8th because it’s a marijuana legalization proposition which excites even the casual observer.  The ballot measure would allow for marijuana to be more or less regulated like alcohol and would be somewhat similar to Colorado.  The elected officials involved in Arizona are split along party lines on whether or not they support it.  According to the polls I’ve seen, it is pretty split whether or not Proposition will pass.  I’m not too sure of what is going to happen with regards to this proposition.  My gut is telling me that the way Clinton wins the state is thanks to demographics and enough third and fourth party spoilers that this proposition will be very close.  I think this will be significantly closer than the Presidential election in Arizona. That’s saying something.
3. Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: For some strange reason, I’ve become slightly obsessed with this Congressional race.  The incumbent for this race is Ann Kirkpatrick who is going to run for the U.S. Senate instead of running for re-election.  She won re-election to this district in 2014 by less than 10,000 votes.  She won election in 2012 by less than 10,000 votes after losing to Paul Gosar in 2010 by 13,000 votes when she was running for re-election. This is a fairly close Congressional district and would typically be a target for taking the seat for the Republican Party.  Tom O’Halleran is running as the Democratic nominee in the district.  O’Halleran is a former Republican who changed from Republican to Independent to Democrat in the last few years.  He’s fairly moderate but doesn’t seem to be the strongest of candidates.  Especially, since opponents could potentially portray O’Halleran as changing his party as being a flip-flopper or someone changing his party out of political expediency.  But in the Republican primary, the Republican supporters decided to choose Paul Babeu with 30.8% of the vote in a crowded primary field.  Babeu is a controversial figure in politics.  He is a gay sheriff who tried to portray himself as tough on immigration, only he had a relationship with an undocumented immigrant whom he threatened to report to immigration services if word got out. I wrote more about Babeu previously.  In a typical election, the Republican candidate would probably be a slight favorite but I am having a a hard time believing that Babeu will win on November 8th.  But because of my slight obsession with this race, I have to watch how this race turns out.
4. U.S. Senate Election: As I mentioned above, Ann Kirkpatrick is running for Senate.  She is running against the original Arizona maverick, John McCain.  McCain is runing for re-election in what is probably going to be his election he can stand for. Looking at the polls from Huffington Post Pollster is showing that McCain is doing better than I originally thought.  McCain has had a few gaffes including saying that he and all Republicans will be “united against any Supreme court nominee that Hillary Clinton, if she were president, would put up.”  Depending on your political persuasion, that was either a gaffe, the truth, or just what you wanted to hear.  McCain has tried to walk a tight rope on whether or not he is supporting Donald Trump and has eventually walked back his original support. McCain will still have a tough challenge in two weeks when Arizonans go to the ballot box to cast their vote.  Kirkpatrick is fairly moderate and is trying to run on her apparent youth and being in touch with Arizonans against McCain.  I think McCain is still a slight favorite in the state but more stumbles from McCain could let Kirkpatrick make up just enough ground to make it more interesting.  Since Arizona might tip the Senate balance one way or the other, it’s going to be very important for the country.
5. Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District: This was another of the Congressional races that I was slightly obsessed with.  Ron Barber (D) was elected in 2012 by less than 3,000 votes.  In 2014, which became one of the most expensive races in the country, Martha McSally (R) was able to pull the upset over Barber by less than 200 votes.  McSally is more of a moderate Republican than the typical Republican currently in Congress.  I wrote more about the district here including effusive praise for State lawmaker Victoria Steele.  Steele lost the Democratic primary to Matt Heinz.  I’ve not done enough research on Heinz especially compared to Steele but Heinz appears to be running as more and more of a progressive in the district.  This district is slightly more left-leaning than the rest of the state.  Mitt Romney won the district with 49.9% of the vote compared to 48.4% of the vote for Barack Obama.  If Heinz is able to continue to run a strong campaign in the district, he may be able to win election.  Based on the limited polling I’ve seen for the district, it seems unlikely he will be able to.  What this means then, is that McSally is able to outperform Trump in the district by a significant margin (in all likelihood).  This should be a close race based on Presidential performances but will really fall to whoever had the stronger campaign.
6. Bonus thing to watch out for is Proposition 206.  This proposition would increase the minimum wage to $10/hour in Arizona in 2017 and then it would be raised to $12/hour by 2020.  But what’s even better, in my opinion is that the proposition would guarantee 40 hours of paid sick time to employees of businesses with 15 or more employees.  This is significantly better legislation and more important legislation than the marijuana initiative, just for the paid sick time alone.  But this would also increase the minimum wage.  The polls that I’ve looked at show that this proposition is going to pass.  If you’re just a casual observer of politics, this is the proposition I would rather watch than the marijuana proposition.  But I know, I know, people have their own issues.