Author: josiahbbg

5 things to watch in every state: New Mexico

Gary Johnson, the former Governor of the state, was initially running high on the idea that he could somehow win his state and somehow could force the Presidential election to the House of Representatives.  This is the dream of a number of people who like to get stoned and talk about politics without a real idea of what they are talking about.

  1. New Mexico State Senate District 9: Democrats hold a six seat advantage in the State Senate in New Mexico which is not a big enough advantage that they shouldn’t worry about keeping it.  It seems unlikely that Republicans will be able to take it back but one of the races to watch there is this district. Democrat John Sapien won re-election to this district in 2012 with 50.3% of the vote.  He won by 161 votes over Republican challenger David Doyle.  Sapien survived a primary challenge this year and is running, again, against a Republican challenger Diego Espinoza. Espinoza is trying to break into this small firewall of votes that Sapien seems to have.  I’ll be interested in watching whether or not Sapien is able to win by a larger margin.
  2. New Mexico State Senate District 15: Daniel Ivey-Soto has a little bit more breathing room than Sapien.  Ivey-Soto was able to win election in 2012 over his Republican opponent by a little less than 1,200 votes.  Ivey-Soto is facing a new challenger in 2016.  New Mexico is going to to be fairly competitive but Democrats should be motivated enough to give Ivey-Soto about the same margin that he had in 2012.
  3. New Mexico State House of Representatives, District 15: Republicans were able to take back the State house of Representatives after 60 year control of the chamber by Democrats.  Democrats are looking to take back the chamber, if they can.  One of the districts that they’re probably looking at is District 15.  Democrat Emily Kane won election in this district over Christopher Saucedo in 2012 by 314 votes.  In 2014, while Kane was running for re-election she faced Republican Sarah Maestras Barnes.  Maesstras Barnes was able to defeat Kaane’s re-election bid by 356 votes.  The new Democrat running in this district is Ane Romero hoping to make the type of gain that we see very often in Presidential years for the Democratic candidates.
  4. New Mexico State House of Representatives, District 24: Democrat Elizabeth Thomson was able to defeat Republican incumbent Conrad James by 78 votes.  All elections that were decided by less than 100 votes should be considered one of the closest elections in the country.  It did not take a great political prognosticator to predict that Thomson would lose to her Republican opponent.  Thomson faced James again in 2014 and she lost by 384 votes.  In 2016, it seems likely that Thomson could defeat the Republican candidate Christina Marie Hall in 2016.  But it will be a very close race, if 2012 is any indicator.
  5. New Mexico State House of Representatives, District 37: This was very close to being my favorite election to watch in 2016.  unfortunately, there was a mistake in describing the political party of the candidates. As it happens, though, this is still one of my favorite elections to watch.  In 2012, Republican Terry McMillan was able to hold onto his seat by 8 votes out of 12,526 votes cast.  8 total votes.  No matter how many times I see it, seeing elections decided by less than 10 votes makes me happy.  Democratic challenger Joanne Ferrary decided to challenge McMillan again in 2014.  She lost by 409 votes.  This is still a small amount to decide an election.  Ferrary has once again decided to challenge McMillan for 2016.  If 2012 is any indication, this wil be one of the closest elections in the country.
  6. New Mexico State House of Representatives, District 39: This is another district where Democrats are looking to take back what was once theirs.  Democratic incumbent Rodolfo Martinez was able to win re-election in 2012 by 430 votes. Trying to get re-election in 2014, Martinez faced Republican John Zimmerman in a rematch of 2012.  This time Zimmerman was able to win.  He beat Martinez by 344 votes.  In 2016, we will have our third straight election between Martinez and Zimmerman.  If Martinez does better in Presidential election years, like we think, then it seems like he will be able to take back the seat over Zimmerman.

5 things to watch in every state: Montana

Montana is such a weird state for electoral politics, really.

  1. Montana Gubernatorial election: The current Governor of Montana is a Democrat.  Democrat Steve Bullock.  This tends to confuse people who think that states like Montana and a few other states like to elect Democrats at the state and local level.  Bullock is running for re-election.  He is facing Republican Greg Gianforte.  Pretty much all of the rating groups, say that this rate is lean Democratic. The polling for the state shows s a close race between Bullock and Gianforte. It’s important to watch because if Gianforte wins the election, Republicans will hold the State Senate and State House in addition to the Governor’s mansion.  Bullock won election to the Governor’s mansion with 49% of the vote in 2012.  Barack Obama lost the state by 14 points at the same time.  It’s possible that Trump’s style dos not match well with Montana voters which could hurt both Trump and other candidates trying to hold onto his coattails.  This election is going to rely on Bullock to outpace Clinton in the state which seems likely but not guaranteed.
  2. U.S. House of Representatives, Montana’s At Large Congressional District: This seat is currently held by Republican Ryan Zinke.  Zinke initially own election in 2014 with 55% of the vote beating Democrat John Lewis by 55,000 votes.  Steve Daines won the 2012 election with 53% of the vote defeating Democrat Kim Gillan by 50,000 votes.  Sabato’s Crystal ball has this race as likely Republican and I tend to agree. Zinke would have to have Trump fail in the state or run significantly behind Trump at the statewide level.  His challenger is Democrat Denise Juneau.  Juneau is currently the Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction so she knows what it takes to get elected at the statewide level.  While I think Juneau is likely to get defeated, it seems possible that Juneau would be able to pull the upset.
  3. I-182, Medical Marijuana Initiative: Montana legalized medical marijuana in 2004.  It was later revised in 2011.  This revision limited dispensaries to only having three users.  This ballot measure would repeal this limitation and change the way law enforcement agencies interact with medical marijuana dispensaries. Polls are showing that the measure is going to be close (51% opposing the measure, according to the last poll I looked at).  But that’s a pretty close ballot measure.  I’m interested in watching how it fares, despite my qualms about having so many medical marijuana ballot measures this year.
  4. Montana State Senate District 10: Democrat Deborah Magin is running for this State Senate seat against Republican Steve Fitzpatrick.  The seat is currently held by Democrat Brad Hamlett.  He won re-election in 2012 with 51.1% of the vote defeating the Republican by 171 votes.  That’s a really close election, in which the incumbent held an advantage.  It looks like it is going to be a very close election in 2016, as well, and one well worth checking out.
  5. Montana State Senate District 25: Not really sure why this election for the district last took place in 2010.  Kendall Van Dyk, a Democrat, was able to unseat the Republican incumbent Roy Brown by 8 votes.  8(!) votes.  Can you imagine?  That’s really insane.  Anyway, Van Dyk was initially considered a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate but dropped out after his wife had their first child.  He is not running for re-election.  Since the last election took place in 2010, it’s unclear to me how the new state senate seats were drawn for the district.  Democrat Jen Gross is facing Republican Donna Huston in the seat.  If the district was redrawn to be slightly more conservative, then Gross is likely to lose but we shall see.
  6. Montana Secretary of State election: The current Montana Secretary of State is Democrat Linda McCulloch.  She can’t run for re-election due to term limits.  Based on previous elections, the Secretary of State in Montana flips control every other election.  So it would seem likely that the Republican Corey Stapleton could be able to win the election.  He is running against Democrat State Auditor Monica Lindeen.  They are nearly tied at fundraising, so it will come down to who can get the vote out on November 8th.  My bet is on Lindeen who has been elected but she’s going against party registration numbers so it could be pretty close.

5 things to watch in every state: Massachusetts

Massachusetts is kind of a boring state for federal elections.  Martha Coakley is not runnig for election this year to lose what should be an easy win for the Democrats.  Because of that, there are only three things that I’m watching in this state.

  1. Question 2: At one point, there was a war within the Democratic Party over the future of education reform.  More “neoliberal” Democrats seem to be fin favor of trying to go through education reform by using Rheeism to reform teacher unions and by extension would change the education movement.  Part of this movement would lead to the creation of charter schools to get around the teacher unions.  Republicans have often taken the charge of charter schools because they think that public education can only be reformed or fixed if the teacher unions are pushed out of the way. This question would allow for the authorization of up to 12 charter schools in the state.  It’s being spearheaded by Republican moderate Governor Charlie Baker.  And by some of the Democrats, such as Stephen Lynch.  The “Elizabeth Warren part” of the Democratic Party are strongly opposing the measure and wanting to watch Baker struggle.
  2. Question 3: This is one of the first ballot measures for animal welfare that I’ve seen in a while, if ever.  When I was in college, I remember being fired up about changing animal welfare laws.  The measure would try to prohibit factory farms and try to let animals be able to actually stand and be able to move in order for them to eventually be harvested for the sale of meat.  There would be a fine for those who violate the measure.  The biggest supporters of the measure are animal welfare organizations.
  3. Question 4: I’m so tired of marijuana ballot measures. This ballot measure would legalize recreational marijuana for individuals who are over the age of 21.  This is another measure that stands in contrast to Governor Charlie Baker. According to the polls I’ve seen, this looks like a very close ballot measure and should be one to watch.  Even if I’m sick of trying to follow all the marijuana ballot measures that are out there because I don’t think it’s very important, overall.

5 things to watch in every state: Minnesota

This is a state that Donald Trump has said that he would compete in Minnesota.  That’s just not going to happen.  I don’t want to spoil the election for you.  But Trump is not going to win Minnesota.

  1. U.S. House of Representatives, Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings has this race as a “Lean Democratic” seat.  Republican John Kline won re-election in 2012 with 54% of the vote winning by nearly 30,000 votes over Democrat Mike Obermueller.  They had a rematch in 2014, which was a more conservative year, Kline was able to win re-election by 42,000 votes.  Jason Lewis, a radio host in Minnesota, was able to win the Republican primary for this year when Kline announced he would not seek re-election.  Lewis is a conservative darling but has seen as vulnerable for the general election.  The Democratic Party nominated Angie Craig to run against Lewis.  Craig holds a significant fundraising advantage over Lewis.  In a more Democratic year, it seems like Craig would have a shot at the seat and flip this district.
  2. U.S. House of Representatives, Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District: Sabato’s Crystal Ball only has this race as “leans Republican.”  The most recent polling that I saw has the Republican incumbent Erik Paulsen up by 11.Paulsen won re-election in 2012 with 58% of the vote defeating Democrat Brian Barnes by 63,000 votes.  Paulsen won re-election again in 2014 by 66,000 votes.  I’m not sure how the Crystal Ball only has this as lean Republican but if Democrats are serious about flipping the House, this may be a district that they’re going to blitz for the last week.
  3. Minnesota State Senate District 17: There’s not that may State Senate Districts that are going to have problems for the Democrats who currently hold the State Senate. Democrat Lyle Koenen won re-election to the State Senate in 2012 with 55% of the vote winning the seat by just over 4,000 votes.  He is facing a new challenger in 2016.  Koenen is likely to win re-election in 2016 by a fairly similar margin.
  4. Minnesota State Senate District 44: Democrat Terri Bonoff won re-election to the State Senate in 2012 with 55% of the vote.  Bonoff chose not to seek re-election.  The Democratic Party nominated a new candidate in Deb Calvert and the Republican Party nominated Paul Anderson to run for the seat.  Even though bonoff likely benefitted from an incumbency advantage, it seems likely that Calvert is able to win election to the seat on November 8th.
  5. Minnesota State Senate District 58: In 2012, Republican Dave Thompson won re-election to the state Senate by 6,400 votes.  Thompson chose not to seek re-election in 2016.  The Republican Party nominated Tim Pitcher to run against Democratic Party’s Matt Little for the seat.  Thompson likely was advantaged by incumbency but it’s hard to say that even in a Presidential election year that a Democrat can take the seat.

5 things to watch in every state: Maryland

I can’t. I’m sorry. There’s not 5 things I’m interested in watching in Maryland.  There are only three.

  1. U.S. House of Representatives Maryland’s 6th Congressional District: Democratic incumbent John Delaney won election in 2012 over Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.  Delaney faced a tougher than expected challenge in 2014 against the embattled Republican Dan Bongino.  Delaney only was able to win by slightly less than 3,000 votes.  Many of those votes probably did not show up as there was a turnout decrease from 1119,000 votes from 2012 to 2014.  George Gluck was a Green Party candidate on the ballot who was able to get 3,762 votes, as well. Delaney is running on a slightly more crowded ballot.  He is facing Republican Amie Hoeber and there is a Libertarian Party candidate and a Green Party candidate.  It’s probably going to be somewhat of a blowout for Delaney but since he very nearly lost in 2014, it’s worth watching.
  2. U.S. House of Representatives Maryland’s 8th Congressional District: This is a very Democratic district and is probably not worth watching, in all honesty, unless you have a lot of time and bandwith to be able to do so.  The reason it is on my list is because of the crowded Democratic primary that happened in this district earlier this year.  Jamie Raskin was able to win the Democratic primary with 33.6% of the vote.  He will very likely be elected with close to 60% of the vote, next Tuesday.
  3. Question 1: There is but one statewide ballot measure on the Maryland ballot.  The ballot question is to affirm that when an appointment is made to Attorney General and Comptroller, political parties are preserved.  So if an Attorney General is a Democrat and resigns, the Governor would have to appoint a Democrat to replace him or her.  The opposition to the ballot measure has mainly been from elected Republicans.  The reason for this is that there is a Republican Governor in Maryland but most other offices are Democrats so it would potentially take away power from the Governor.  If the situation was reversed, I am quite certain that Republicans would support the measure.

5 things to watch in every state: Michigan

Michigan, in 2008 and 2012, was a state that John McCain and Mitt Romney thought that they could win.  Donald Trump is banking on an ability to be able to win Michigan that he is spending precious time there.  I remain unconvinced, as the state is leaning to the left more and more.

  1. U.S. House of Representatives, Michigan’s 1st Congressional District: This is listed in Sabato’s Crystal Ball as a Toss Up for a Republican District.  This is an open district as Dan Benishek (Republican) decided not to run for re-election.  He won re-election in 2012 y a small amount, less than 2,000 votes out of over 347,000 votes cast.  In 2014, a more Republican year, Benishek won again, this time defeating Democratic Party candidate Jerry Cannon by 17,000 votes.  The Democratic nominee in this district is Lon Johnson who is leading the Republican Jack Bergman in fundraising for the district.  There is both a Libertarian and Green Party Candidate running for the seat.  In 2014, the Libertarian candidate received 3,823 votes which was 600 votes more than Green Party Candidate so it would seem like it would help the Democratic challenger more than the Republican.
  2. U.S. House of Representatives, Michigan’s 7th Congressional District: Republican incumbent Tim Walberg is running for re-election and is facing Democratic candidate Gretchen Driskell.  Walberg won re-election in 2012 with 53.3% of the vote beating Democratic challenger Kurt Haskell by 33,000 votes.  Somewhat surprisingly, Walberg did worse in 2014 by vote margin over his Democratic challenger.  He won 2014 by 27,000 votes.  He was hurt, in part by a Libertarian candidate and a U.S. Tax Payers Party candidate.  In 2016, Walberg does have a third party spoiler in Ken Proctor, a Libertarian Party candidate to help Driskell out, if possible.  If Gary Johnson can do well enough to get down party voters for Ken Proctor, the Libertarian Party candidate, then this district is going to be put in play.  I’m not sure how good Johnson is going to do.  I think Driskell needs a lot more help to be able to win the district.
  3. U.S. House of Representatives, Michigan’s 8th Congressional District: In 2012, Republican incumbent Mike Robers won re-election with 58.6% of the vote.  He won the race by over 20 points and 74,000 votes.  Rogers did not run for re-election in 2014.  The Republican candidate Mike Bishop won the election in 2014 with 54.6% of the vote with 30,000 votes more than Democrat Eric Schertzing.  Bishop is running for re-election in the district.  The Democratic candidate is Suzanna Shkreli.  Hurting her chances in the district are a Greeen Party candidate and potentially a Natural law candidate.  Shkreli would need a lot of help to be able to unseat Bishop and it doesn’t look like it is shaping up to be of much help.
  4. Michigan State House of Representatives 71st District: The Republican Party hodls the majority in the Stte House of Representativs.  The district is currently represented by Republican Tom Barrett.  He is running in a rematch facing former incumbent Theresa Abed.  Abed won in 2012 over the Republican incumbent.  Abed won by 3,000 votes in 2012.  In 2014, Abed ran for re-election.  Barrett defeated Abed in that election by a total of 148 votes.  Abed is having a rematch in a Presidential year, which should help her.  Also helping her, is the fact that there is a Libertarian candidate on the ballot in Marc Lord.  That should be enough to give the election to Abed.
  5. Michigan State House of Representatives 91st District: this is an election that is more or less the same election in the district that has been there since 2012. In 2012, Democrat Collene Lamonte defeated the Republican incumbent Holly Hughes by 333 votes.  Lamonte was helped by the Libertarian candidate Nick Sundquist being on the ballot.  Hughes was itching for a rematch in 2014 (note: no idea if this is true).  She was able to defeat Lamonte in 2014 by 53 votes.  There was an independent candidate Alan Jager on the ballot who received 1,959 votes.  An interesting tidbit is that in both 2012 and 2014 the winner did not win a majority of the votes. In 2016, we have another matchup of Lamonte vs Hughes with a Libertarian candidate on the ballot, as well. It seems like this should favor Lamonte in being to take back her seat.

 

5 things to watch in every state: Nebraska

Ahhh, my home state.  Even though we are a Conservative state, there is quite a bit to watch in this state. I wrote a voter guide for the state.

  1. U.S. House of Representatives, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: Moderate Democrat Brad Ashford won election in 2014 against Republican incumbent Lee Terry.  District 2 had been a close election in every election except 2010 when Democrat Tom White got crushed by Lee Terry.  Jim Esch had twice almost upset Lee Terry (2008 was a lot closer than 2006) and John Ewing had very nearly defeated Terry in 2012, losing by 4,000 votes.  In 2014, with turnout much lower, Ashford managed to defeat Terry by close to 6,000 votes.  The Libertarian Party candidate Steven Laird received 9,021 votes.  Laird is on the ballot, again, in 2016 which will likely help Ashford.  Ashford’s opponent this year is retired Brigadier General, Don Bacon.  Bacon’s campaign strategy in this election has been to try to make Ashford seem more like a partisan than he really is and that Ashford doesn’t know what he’s talking about.  Bacon, for whatever it’s worth, initially called for Trump to step down but then deleted that press release from his website.  He has since affirmed his support for Trump.  It’s a weird strategy, in my opinion, see below.  Currently, as we finished October for early voting, Democrats have a ballot advantage of 6.5 thousand ballots that have been returned.  Independents have returned 8,742 ballots as of 10/31.  In 2014, Ashford had a 10,000 vote lead in Douglas County.   This is to combat a more conservative Sarpy County.  The 2nd Congressional District also has a slight registration advantage for the Democratic Party.
  2. Presidential election, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: As most of you probably know, Nebraska can split their electoral votes based on Congressional districts.  In 2008, Barack Obama was able to win the 2nd Congressional District and for the first time, able to split the electoral votes in the state.  Can Clinton do the same?  As I stated above, Democrats are on their way to getting a 10,000 vote advantage in Douglas County. Clinton and the Democratic Party has decided to focus staff and resources here that were not focused here in 2012.  This is similar to the Obama pledge in 2008.  In order to really pull out the electoral vote split, they need to continue the “get out the vote” effort that they have started.  My personal opinion is that Trump and his abraisveness does not play well within the district, certainly, not as well as Mitt Romney.  For whatever reason, my belief is that Gary Johnson does fairly well here.  The reason being is that while there are a lot of Conservatives in Omaha, we do have a Libertarian streak within us.  The other thing to pay attention to is how Mormons in the city of Omaha will vote.  Since we’re dealing with a smaller population, there are tends of thousands of Mormons in the city who may end up flipping the district toward Clinton.  It’s a real shame that we’re very terrible at counting ballots so we probably won’t know early on in election night if it’s going to flip.
  3. Referendum 426: The Conservative Legislature in Nebraska voted to repeal the death penalty in Nebraska.  This was vetoed by Governor Pete Ricketts.  When it was sent back to the legislature, they voted to override the veto.  Beau McCoy and other Conservatives decided that they were so angered by this action that they would take this to the people.  Ricketts contacted State Senators personally to override his veto.  He spent time, donating, and his political clout to try to get State Senators who voted to override his veto out of the legislature.  Nebraska is a conservative state and it’s a confusing ballot question.  You can vote to retain which will retain the repeal.  If you vote to repeal, you are going to vote to repeal the repeal.  Confused, yet?  It’s very confusing.  I’ve written about why we should repeal the death penalty (vote to retain on the ballot question) and why I oppose the death penalty.  But I think the voters of Nebraska disagree with me and will vote to repeal the repeal.
  4. Nebraska State Senate District 7: This is a very Democratic district (I know, I know the Nebraska legislature tries to dress itself up as nonpartisan) and voted for Jeremy Nordquist in 2012 with 70% of the vote.  When he resigned to become the Chief of Staff to Brad Ashford, Governor Pete Ricketts decided to appoint Nicole Fox as his replacement.  Fox, a Republican, lost in the primary in 2016, losing by 20 votes to appear on the ballot for the general election.  The general election will pit two Democrats against each in the district, Tony Vargas vs. John Synowiecki.  Synowiecki is a former legislator for the district.  Vargas is an up and comer in politics.  I like both of these candidates and am interested if Vargas can end up winning after winning the primary election by so much.
  5. Nebraska State Senate District 31: This is my former legislative district in the state.  It pits fairly moderate Rick Kolowski.  Kolowski barely won the 2012 election, winning by less than 700 votes.  Kolowski’s opponent in this election is Ian Swanson.  Swanson is a young conservative who has been endorsed by most of the Republican Party in order to try to take back this Senate district.  Swanson’s qualifications are pretty sparse, to be honest.  If I’m interested in watching to see if the state senate will be even more conservative than before (which I am) than I am intently watching this election.
  6. Nebraska State Senate District 13: To a less depressing election for me to watch, we have State Senate District 13.  Jill Brown is running and facing Justin Wayne.  this is another election that I like both candidates so I can’t really decide who I would want to see win but I do want to watch it fairly closely.
  7. Nebraska State Senate, the interference of Gov. Pete Ricketts: The figure that looms large over Nebraska politics in this election and potentially going forward is Pete Ricketts. In District 23, Ricketts had a hand in propping up a challenger to Jerry Johnson.  Johnson voted to override a veto for a gas tax hike and providing driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants.  Ricketts explicitly endorsed Les Seiler’s opponent Steve Halloran.  Ricketts targeted Seiler because Seiler voted to override his veto on the death penalty and the gas tax.  And in District 43, Ricketts also supported a challenger to Al Davis who voted to override Ricketts’s veto.  There are more than a handful of reports of Ricketts going out of his way to help challengers to legislators who oppose him.  I’m interested in watching this dynamic because Ricketts is effectively saying that he can’t work with these legislators if they oppose him.  It should come as no surprise that Ricketts backed away from his initial anti-Trump stance into a pro-Trump stance including a fundraiser for the nominee.  As Nebraska faces a $1 billion shortfall, we need legislators who are willing to stand up for their convictions and work for what is right without repercussions from who is essentially their boss.

5 things to watch in every state: Kentucky

Despite Kentucky’s federal elections, this is a Democratic state at the state and local level.  The Democratic Party just lost a gubernatorial election in 2014 when Matt Bevin ran on shutting down Kynect and somehow stopping the Medicaid expansion.  The Democrats were able to hold onto the State House of Representatives which forced Rand Paul to fund a Presidential caucus instead of having their typical Presidential primary election.  It appears that Donald Trump is not going to be such a drag on Senate races to really kill Rand Paul’s chances of getting re-elected.  In a real wave election, Paul would be a vulnerable Senate incumbent.

  1. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 13: Democratic James (Jim) Glenn was re-elected in 2012 in this district with 50.8% of the vote over Independent candidate Bill Barron who received 49.2% of the vote.  The vote difference was 251.  In 2014, while Democrats were trying hard to retain the House, Glenn defeated Republican challenger Alan Braden.  Braden lost the election by just over 500 votes to Glenn.  How did Glenn do better in 2014 when a Republican was elected to the Governor’s mansion?  It’s possible that voters in the district do really support Democratic candidates better based on tradition.  But I’m not sure.  Like I said before, the Kentucky Democratic Party really focused on retaining the House in 2014.  It may have worked. At least in this district.
  2. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 25: Democrat Jimmie Lee ran unopposed in 2012 and was re-elected.  In 2014, while Democrats were trying to retain the House, Lee lost by 248 votes to Republican Jim DuPlessis. Unlike in a lot of other elections when a Democrat lost in 2014, Lee is not running for a rematch.  The Democratic nominee in 2016 is Michael Dile.  Dile is going to try to unseat DuPlessis and break into the 248 vote firewall.
  3. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 49: Democrat incumbent Linda Belcher lost her election in 2012 52.8-47.2 and lost by 1,105 votes in total to Republican Russell Webber.  Webber did not run for re-election in 2014.  Belcher decided to try to retake her seat in 2014.  She was able to do so by defeating Michael Nemes in 2014 by 737 votes.  Belcher is running for re-election in 2016 against a new Republican challenger, Dan Johnson.  It should be a fairly close election if the last two elections are any guide.
  4. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 74: Demcoratic incumbent Richard Henderson ran unopposed in 2012.  In 2014, he was challenged by Republican David Hale.  Hale was able to defeat Henderson by less than 900 votes.  Henderson is not running for a rematch.  The Democratic nominee for 2016 in this district is James Davis trying to unseat Hale.  I’m not sure how Democratic leaning the district could be since I don’t have the data from 2012.  But I think Davis could have a good shot in a Democratic Presidential year.
  5. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 91: The Democratic incumbent Ted Edmonds lost re-election in 2012 by 134 votes to Republican challenger Gary Herald.  Hearld ran for re-election in 2014 against a new Democratic opponent, Cluster Howard.  Howard was able to win the election by 14 votes (13,860 total votes cast).  Howard is running for re-election and is running in a rematch against Herald.  We have two elections decided by a total of 148 votes.  So I’m really excited for this.

5 things to watch in every state: Maine

Beside the University of Maine e-mailing me about going to their law school, there are a few elections worth watching there. I have it ranked in order of what I’m interested in.

  1. U.S. House of Representatives, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District:  This is a fairly Democratic leaning district, at least in the past.  Barack Obama won the district with 52.9% of the vote, winning by 8 points over Mitt Romney.  Bruce Poliquin, a Republican was able to win election in 2014.  Mike Michaud, the former Representative had decided to run for Governor losing to Paul LePage.  In recent polls in the district, voters in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District are increasingly frustrated with Poliquin for sitting out the Presidential election, as best he can.  His challenger Emily Cain, is the same one he faced in 2014 who he beat by 15,000 votes with 31,337 votes going to a third party candidate.  In a more Democratic year, it seems like Cain would have a better chance to defeat Poliquin.  But it depends on the next election.
  2. Presidential election, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Like I said, above, this district voted for Barack Obama twice.  In 2008 and 2012.  It’s very rare for a Congressional district to split the electoral votes (like Nebraska’s 2nd in 2008).  But Trump is trying for a split, here.  The appeal of Trump in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is his appeal to white non-college educated voters.  It seems like a stronger area for Trump to be able to get 1 electoral vote and have Maine split their electoral votes.  I’m pretty interested in watching to see if the electoral vote gets split.
  3. Question 5: Maine is trying to change their voting system.  Ralph Nader did run on a ranked choice platform in 2000 (weird to remember that, huh).  Ranked choice voting would also move the system to an instant runoff system.  What would happen, if passed, is that the voters would go through and rank their choices in order of who they would want to be elected.  Last place candidates would be eliminated until someone has a majority of votes.  In theory, you couldn’t run on an appeal to just your base because you would have to form a coalition to be able to convince some voters on the other side to at least rank your candidate fairly high.  I’m like 99% sure that this is on the ballot because Paul LePage was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 thanks to the third party spoiler campaign of Eliot Cutler.
  4. Question 3: This would more or less require universal background checks for gun sales and transfers with exceptions for family members.  The universal background check requirement, in theory, would close the gun show loophole in Maine.  Of course, the NRA and other gun rights activists are opposing the measure as an unprecedented attack on freedom.
  5. Question 2: This is a ballot measure to help fund public education in Maine.  This would pass an additional 3% tax surcharge on incomes above $200,000 to be earmarked for public education.  To clarify this, the tax would only be on the income that is above $200,000.  So if your income was $201,000, you would be taxed an additional 3% on that $1,000.
  6. Question 4: This ballot measure would gradually increase the minimum wage in Maine to $12/hour by 2020 and then index the minimum wage to inflation at that point.  Most of the opponents of the Amendment are Republicans and pro-business organizations.  Based on the polling, it looks like the Amendment will pass with flying colors and will lift many Mainers out of poverty or somewhat close to a better life.

5 things to watch in every state: Louisiana

  1. U.S. Senate race: I’m actually looking forward to this Senate race more than any other Senate race in the country.  I’m not really exaggerating by that much.  Thanks to a quirk in Louisiana’s electoral laws, there’s not a real primary election.  The primary election is the general election and everyone can run.  If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the general election, there is a runoff election held between the top two vote getters.  Louisiana is a conservative state.  So, why am I excited? There are 24 candidates running for Senate in Louisiana.  24!  Yea. Good luck getting 50% of the vote with that many candidates. The most recent polling that I’ve seen had Republican John Kennedy with 24% of the vote and Democrat Foster Campbell with 19%.  We haven’t gotten to one of my favorite parts, there are 8 Republican candidates running and all trying to get to the run off so they’re going to beat each other up along the way.  Also, David Duke is running.  How did I get that far in the paragraph without mentioning that? Ahhh. It’s all so glorious.  There’s a very good chance that two Democrats advance to the runoff.
  2. U.S. House of Representatives District 3: This is mainly because of the quirk of Louisiana election law that allows all of the candidates to show up on the ballot for the general election.  There are 12 candidates running for this seat including 8 Republicans.  If they split enough of the vote, there is a possibility that two Democrats can advance to the runoff.  I don’t think it’s very probable, but there’s always a chance.
  3. Amendment 2: The state legislature is no up for election, next Tuesday.  So we move on to the statewide ballot measures.  This ballot measure, if passed, would allow college boards to establish tuition and fee without getting legislative approval.  Most of the opposition for the bill has come from Democrats in the state Senate and State House of Representatives. If passed, it seems likely that college tuition would be raised at the Louisiana public colleges and universities.  The New Orleans Times Picayune argues that if passed, college boards could make some type of degrees more expensive than others.  I’m interested in watching if young voters show up to vote or parents of these children show up to vote.
  4. Amendment 3: This seems like ballot budgeting, which some oppose.  The Amendment, if passed, would allow corporations to no longer deduct their federal income taxes from the state income tax bill.  They would pay a flat tax of 6.5%.  This also decouples the corporate tax in Louisiana from the federal tax collections in Washington, D.C. Most of the opposition of the Amendment came from Republicans and the Amendment was offered by a Democrat.
  5. Amendment 6: This Amendment was more or less put forward because of poor budgeting for the state over the last few years and the governorship of Bobby Jindal.  The Amendment would allow it easier for the state to access money in some state accounts.  It would protect some state accounts from being tapped in the event of a budget downturn.  But it could be that voters and legislators are trying to be protected from making tough budget decisions going forward.