I can’t. I’m sorry. There’s not 5 things I’m interested in watching in Maryland.  There are only three.

1. U.S. House of Representatives Maryland’s 6th Congressional District: Democratic incumbent John Delaney won election in 2012 over Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.  Delaney faced a tougher than expected challenge in 2014 against the embattled Republican Dan Bongino.  Delaney only was able to win by slightly less than 3,000 votes.  Many of those votes probably did not show up as there was a turnout decrease from 1119,000 votes from 2012 to 2014.  George Gluck was a Green Party candidate on the ballot who was able to get 3,762 votes, as well. Delaney is running on a slightly more crowded ballot.  He is facing Republican Amie Hoeber and there is a Libertarian Party candidate and a Green Party candidate.  It’s probably going to be somewhat of a blowout for Delaney but since he very nearly lost in 2014, it’s worth watching.
2. U.S. House of Representatives Maryland’s 8th Congressional District: This is a very Democratic district and is probably not worth watching, in all honesty, unless you have a lot of time and bandwith to be able to do so.  The reason it is on my list is because of the crowded Democratic primary that happened in this district earlier this year.  Jamie Raskin was able to win the Democratic primary with 33.6% of the vote.  He will very likely be elected with close to 60% of the vote, next Tuesday.
3. Question 1: There is but one statewide ballot measure on the Maryland ballot.  The ballot question is to affirm that when an appointment is made to Attorney General and Comptroller, political parties are preserved.  So if an Attorney General is a Democrat and resigns, the Governor would have to appoint a Democrat to replace him or her.  The opposition to the ballot measure has mainly been from elected Republicans.  The reason for this is that there is a Republican Governor in Maryland but most other offices are Democrats so it would potentially take away power from the Governor.  If the situation was reversed, I am quite certain that Republicans would support the measure.

Michigan, in 2008 and 2012, was a state that John McCain and Mitt Romney thought that they could win.  Donald Trump is banking on an ability to be able to win Michigan that he is spending precious time there.  I remain unconvinced, as the state is leaning to the left more and more.

1. U.S. House of Representatives, Michigan’s 1st Congressional District: This is listed in Sabato’s Crystal Ball as a Toss Up for a Republican District.  This is an open district as Dan Benishek (Republican) decided not to run for re-election.  He won re-election in 2012 y a small amount, less than 2,000 votes out of over 347,000 votes cast.  In 2014, a more Republican year, Benishek won again, this time defeating Democratic Party candidate Jerry Cannon by 17,000 votes.  The Democratic nominee in this district is Lon Johnson who is leading the Republican Jack Bergman in fundraising for the district.  There is both a Libertarian and Green Party Candidate running for the seat.  In 2014, the Libertarian candidate received 3,823 votes which was 600 votes more than Green Party Candidate so it would seem like it would help the Democratic challenger more than the Republican.
2. U.S. House of Representatives, Michigan’s 7th Congressional District: Republican incumbent Tim Walberg is running for re-election and is facing Democratic candidate Gretchen Driskell.  Walberg won re-election in 2012 with 53.3% of the vote beating Democratic challenger Kurt Haskell by 33,000 votes.  Somewhat surprisingly, Walberg did worse in 2014 by vote margin over his Democratic challenger.  He won 2014 by 27,000 votes.  He was hurt, in part by a Libertarian candidate and a U.S. Tax Payers Party candidate.  In 2016, Walberg does have a third party spoiler in Ken Proctor, a Libertarian Party candidate to help Driskell out, if possible.  If Gary Johnson can do well enough to get down party voters for Ken Proctor, the Libertarian Party candidate, then this district is going to be put in play.  I’m not sure how good Johnson is going to do.  I think Driskell needs a lot more help to be able to win the district.
3. U.S. House of Representatives, Michigan’s 8th Congressional District: In 2012, Republican incumbent Mike Robers won re-election with 58.6% of the vote.  He won the race by over 20 points and 74,000 votes.  Rogers did not run for re-election in 2014.  The Republican candidate Mike Bishop won the election in 2014 with 54.6% of the vote with 30,000 votes more than Democrat Eric Schertzing.  Bishop is running for re-election in the district.  The Democratic candidate is Suzanna Shkreli.  Hurting her chances in the district are a Greeen Party candidate and potentially a Natural law candidate.  Shkreli would need a lot of help to be able to unseat Bishop and it doesn’t look like it is shaping up to be of much help.
4. Michigan State House of Representatives 71st District: The Republican Party hodls the majority in the Stte House of Representativs.  The district is currently represented by Republican Tom Barrett.  He is running in a rematch facing former incumbent Theresa Abed.  Abed won in 2012 over the Republican incumbent.  Abed won by 3,000 votes in 2012.  In 2014, Abed ran for re-election.  Barrett defeated Abed in that election by a total of 148 votes.  Abed is having a rematch in a Presidential year, which should help her.  Also helping her, is the fact that there is a Libertarian candidate on the ballot in Marc Lord.  That should be enough to give the election to Abed.
5. Michigan State House of Representatives 91st District: this is an election that is more or less the same election in the district that has been there since 2012. In 2012, Democrat Collene Lamonte defeated the Republican incumbent Holly Hughes by 333 votes.  Lamonte was helped by the Libertarian candidate Nick Sundquist being on the ballot.  Hughes was itching for a rematch in 2014 (note: no idea if this is true).  She was able to defeat Lamonte in 2014 by 53 votes.  There was an independent candidate Alan Jager on the ballot who received 1,959 votes.  An interesting tidbit is that in both 2012 and 2014 the winner did not win a majority of the votes. In 2016, we have another matchup of Lamonte vs Hughes with a Libertarian candidate on the ballot, as well. It seems like this should favor Lamonte in being to take back her seat.

 

Despite Kentucky’s federal elections, this is a Democratic state at the state and local level.  The Democratic Party just lost a gubernatorial election in 2014 when Matt Bevin ran on shutting down Kynect and somehow stopping the Medicaid expansion.  The Democrats were able to hold onto the State House of Representatives which forced Rand Paul to fund a Presidential caucus instead of having their typical Presidential primary election.  It appears that Donald Trump is not going to be such a drag on Senate races to really kill Rand Paul’s chances of getting re-elected.  In a real wave election, Paul would be a vulnerable Senate incumbent.

1. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 13: Democratic James (Jim) Glenn was re-elected in 2012 in this district with 50.8% of the vote over Independent candidate Bill Barron who received 49.2% of the vote.  The vote difference was 251.  In 2014, while Democrats were trying hard to retain the House, Glenn defeated Republican challenger Alan Braden.  Braden lost the election by just over 500 votes to Glenn.  How did Glenn do better in 2014 when a Republican was elected to the Governor’s mansion?  It’s possible that voters in the district do really support Democratic candidates better based on tradition.  But I’m not sure.  Like I said before, the Kentucky Democratic Party really focused on retaining the House in 2014.  It may have worked. At least in this district.
2. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 25: Democrat Jimmie Lee ran unopposed in 2012 and was re-elected.  In 2014, while Democrats were trying to retain the House, Lee lost by 248 votes to Republican Jim DuPlessis. Unlike in a lot of other elections when a Democrat lost in 2014, Lee is not running for a rematch.  The Democratic nominee in 2016 is Michael Dile.  Dile is going to try to unseat DuPlessis and break into the 248 vote firewall.
3. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 49: Democrat incumbent Linda Belcher lost her election in 2012 52.8-47.2 and lost by 1,105 votes in total to Republican Russell Webber.  Webber did not run for re-election in 2014.  Belcher decided to try to retake her seat in 2014.  She was able to do so by defeating Michael Nemes in 2014 by 737 votes.  Belcher is running for re-election in 2016 against a new Republican challenger, Dan Johnson.  It should be a fairly close election if the last two elections are any guide.
4. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 74: Demcoratic incumbent Richard Henderson ran unopposed in 2012.  In 2014, he was challenged by Republican David Hale.  Hale was able to defeat Henderson by less than 900 votes.  Henderson is not running for a rematch.  The Democratic nominee for 2016 in this district is James Davis trying to unseat Hale.  I’m not sure how Democratic leaning the district could be since I don’t have the data from 2012.  But I think Davis could have a good shot in a Democratic Presidential year.
5. Kentucky State House of Representatives, District 91: The Democratic incumbent Ted Edmonds lost re-election in 2012 by 134 votes to Republican challenger Gary Herald.  Hearld ran for re-election in 2014 against a new Democratic opponent, Cluster Howard.  Howard was able to win the election by 14 votes (13,860 total votes cast).  Howard is running for re-election and is running in a rematch against Herald.  We have two elections decided by a total of 148 votes.  So I’m really excited for this.

Beside the University of Maine e-mailing me about going to their law school, there are a few elections worth watching there. I have it ranked in order of what I’m interested in.

1. U.S. House of Representatives, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District:  This is a fairly Democratic leaning district, at least in the past.  Barack Obama won the district with 52.9% of the vote, winning by 8 points over Mitt Romney.  Bruce Poliquin, a Republican was able to win election in 2014.  Mike Michaud, the former Representative had decided to run for Governor losing to Paul LePage.  In recent polls in the district, voters in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District are increasingly frustrated with Poliquin for sitting out the Presidential election, as best he can.  His challenger Emily Cain, is the same one he faced in 2014 who he beat by 15,000 votes with 31,337 votes going to a third party candidate.  In a more Democratic year, it seems like Cain would have a better chance to defeat Poliquin.  But it depends on the next election.
2. Presidential election, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Like I said, above, this district voted for Barack Obama twice.  In 2008 and 2012.  It’s very rare for a Congressional district to split the electoral votes (like Nebraska’s 2nd in 2008).  But Trump is trying for a split, here.  The appeal of Trump in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is his appeal to white non-college educated voters.  It seems like a stronger area for Trump to be able to get 1 electoral vote and have Maine split their electoral votes.  I’m pretty interested in watching to see if the electoral vote gets split.
3. Question 5: Maine is trying to change their voting system.  Ralph Nader did run on a ranked choice platform in 2000 (weird to remember that, huh).  Ranked choice voting would also move the system to an instant runoff system.  What would happen, if passed, is that the voters would go through and rank their choices in order of who they would want to be elected.  Last place candidates would be eliminated until someone has a majority of votes.  In theory, you couldn’t run on an appeal to just your base because you would have to form a coalition to be able to convince some voters on the other side to at least rank your candidate fairly high.  I’m like 99% sure that this is on the ballot because Paul LePage was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 thanks to the third party spoiler campaign of Eliot Cutler.
4. Question 3: This would more or less require universal background checks for gun sales and transfers with exceptions for family members.  The universal background check requirement, in theory, would close the gun show loophole in Maine.  Of course, the NRA and other gun rights activists are opposing the measure as an unprecedented attack on freedom.
5. Question 2: This is a ballot measure to help fund public education in Maine.  This would pass an additional 3% tax surcharge on incomes above $200,000 to be earmarked for public education.  To clarify this, the tax would only be on the income that is above $200,000.  So if your income was $201,000, you would be taxed an additional 3% on that $1,000.
6. Question 4: This ballot measure would gradually increase the minimum wage in Maine to $12/hour by 2020 and then index the minimum wage to inflation at that point.  Most of the opponents of the Amendment are Republicans and pro-business organizations.  Based on the polling, it looks like the Amendment will pass with flying colors and will lift many Mainers out of poverty or somewhat close to a better life.

1. U.S. Senate race: I’m actually looking forward to this Senate race more than any other Senate race in the country.  I’m not really exaggerating by that much.  Thanks to a quirk in Louisiana’s electoral laws, there’s not a real primary election.  The primary election is the general election and everyone can run.  If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the general election, there is a runoff election held between the top two vote getters.  Louisiana is a conservative state.  So, why am I excited? There are 24 candidates running for Senate in Louisiana.  24!  Yea. Good luck getting 50% of the vote with that many candidates. The most recent polling that I’ve seen had Republican John Kennedy with 24% of the vote and Democrat Foster Campbell with 19%.  We haven’t gotten to one of my favorite parts, there are 8 Republican candidates running and all trying to get to the run off so they’re going to beat each other up along the way.  Also, David Duke is running.  How did I get that far in the paragraph without mentioning that? Ahhh. It’s all so glorious.  There’s a very good chance that two Democrats advance to the runoff.
2. U.S. House of Representatives District 3: This is mainly because of the quirk of Louisiana election law that allows all of the candidates to show up on the ballot for the general election.  There are 12 candidates running for this seat including 8 Republicans.  If they split enough of the vote, there is a possibility that two Democrats can advance to the runoff.  I don’t think it’s very probable, but there’s always a chance.
3. Amendment 2: The state legislature is no up for election, next Tuesday.  So we move on to the statewide ballot measures.  This ballot measure, if passed, would allow college boards to establish tuition and fee without getting legislative approval.  Most of the opposition for the bill has come from Democrats in the state Senate and State House of Representatives. If passed, it seems likely that college tuition would be raised at the Louisiana public colleges and universities.  The New Orleans Times Picayune argues that if passed, college boards could make some type of degrees more expensive than others.  I’m interested in watching if young voters show up to vote or parents of these children show up to vote.
4. Amendment 3: This seems like ballot budgeting, which some oppose.  The Amendment, if passed, would allow corporations to no longer deduct their federal income taxes from the state income tax bill.  They would pay a flat tax of 6.5%.  This also decouples the corporate tax in Louisiana from the federal tax collections in Washington, D.C. Most of the opposition of the Amendment came from Republicans and the Amendment was offered by a Democrat.
5. Amendment 6: This Amendment was more or less put forward because of poor budgeting for the state over the last few years and the governorship of Bobby Jindal.  The Amendment would allow it easier for the state to access money in some state accounts.  It would protect some state accounts from being tapped in the event of a budget downturn.  But it could be that voters and legislators are trying to be protected from making tough budget decisions going forward.