5 things to watch in every state: Delaware

Oh look another election that is mostly going to be focused on state elections and smaller elections:

  1. Delaware House of Representatives, District 9: Democratic member of the Delaware House, Rebecca Walker did not have opposition in either the primary or the general election in 2012 so it’s hard to compare how she would have done in a Presidential election year.  In 2014, Republican Kevin Hensley was elected to the House of Representatives with 3,290 votes which was 340 more votes than Democratic candidate Jason Hortiz.  There were 152 votes given to independent Douglas Campbell.  That’s not a lot of wiggle room for Hensley to work with.  In a Presidential election year, you might expect a Democratic challenger to be able to win the seat.  It’s definitely worth watching, just to have a baseline for the district.
  2. Delaware House of Representatives, District 10: Dennis Williams was re-elected in 2012 with 52.1% of the votes which gave him a 449 vote advantage over the Republican challenger.  Williams then lost in the 2014 Democratic primary by 126 votes.  There were 1,262 votes in the Democratic primary.  Williams lost to Sean Matthews.  Matthews then won the election in 2014 by 654 votes.  So he improved by a few hundred votes which may mean that he knew what he was doing.  He is running for re-election against Judith Travis who he previously defeated in 2014.
  3. Delaware House of Representatives, District 11: It looks like I’m just going in order of the House of Representatives districts.  In 2012, Republican incumbent Jeffrey Spiegelman received 4,337 votes to win re-election.  He won the district by 210 votes over Democratic challenger Lynne Newlin.  In a rematch in 2014, Spiegelman was able to win re-election with 3,347 votes which was 1,400 more votes than Newlin. Even in a year that would have been better for Republicans , that is an impressive rebound.  It makes the potential of a fall even more entertaining.  He is not running for the third straight time against Newlin but rather against Democratic nominee David Neilson.
  4. Delaware House of Representatives, District 29: Democrat William Charles Paradee won election to the Delaware House of Representatives in 2012 with 5,183 votes defeating Republican incumbent Lincoln Willis by 800 votes.  Paradee won re-election in 2014 with 3,332 votes defeating Peter Kramer who received 2,471 votes.  The margin was much greater in 2014 than 2012. The reason that this is important is that in 2016, there is a potential spoiler who may tip the seat back to the Republicans.  Paradee is facing off against a new Republican challenger, Janice Gallagher.  Ruth James is running as the Green Party candidate.  If James can tip enough votes, she could potentially tip it back to Republicans.  Based on 2014, I don’t think there will be a small enough margin for her to do so.
  5. Delaware House of Representatives, District 41: It’s a set up for one of my favorite type of districts to watch in 2016.  The set up is that a Democrat wins the 2012 election by a small margin (69 in this case).  Then he gets defeated in in 2014 by a fairly small margin (270, in this case) and then a new Democrat runs for election against the incumbent in 2016.  Richard Collins is the Republican in this scenario.  S. Bradley Connor is the new Democrat running for office in 2016.